winter holiday

Looking to go on a holiday with your family later this year? Time to start saving and planning.

I guess $10,000 is enough for a standard sized 2 adults and 2 kids family to have a good vacation together right? I know how low birth rates are in Singapore, I’m just being more conservative. lol

Well, that’s a lot of money.


So here are a few trade ideas which could help you pay for that holiday!

 

Ok I’m just kidding.

Let’s be real folks. Trading profits come from taking hundreds of trades with an edge. The $10,000 is more likely to come from 50 well executed trade ideas than any single trade idea(of course if you’re trading big for a retail trader, then maybe 10 trades will net you $10,000)

 

That’s the truth.

 

So let me highlight some things to assist in your 50 trade ideas.

 

Realistic expectations will keep you in this game long enough to succeed!

 

The swings in the market have been wonderful for trading so far, let’s see for how long more.

 

 

Here’s a look at the world today.

Oil

In this previous article, I highlighted that if oil could not hold $46, $40 oil would be likely and indeed it didn’t hold, and after a few weeks, crude light has indeed seen $40, other oil futures seeing similar price levels. Now however, we could see oil finding its footing here and then making a run to $56. Just purely because this is an area of interest, we could move up off this level. We might flounder around here for a bit before a move up though.

 

US 10 year bonds

US markets

We have the US indices running to new highs, no surprise there, before any large drop can occur, new highs are a likely scenario. But the most important clue to a pre-cursor to any major drops, would be when all the talking-heads on the news channels become all bullish.

Just kidding, although some people swear it’s a legitimate way to gauge market sentiment. =)

I personally prefer to look at the technical picture.

The US treasury yields are right now making higher highs. However we should note that this, is in divergence from the UK and German bond yields, which are instead making lower lows. So I am more in favour of thinking that bond yields will continue their downtrend. This means bond prices should continue rising, which would be a reflection of a strong demand for bonds..

This indicates to us how shakey this rally on the US indices are as well as on the FTSE.

If you’re trading US now, just make sure to trade long with stops, don’t try to pick a high at this point. You’re very likely going to lose more than you would make on this trade idea. Stay nimble, don’t think of riding out any big “retracements” after you get in.

Side note: FTSE is still continuing it’s run out to new highs. 7350 is the target based on measured moves.

 

EURUAD

Seasonals

Seasonal trades indicated EURUSD and GBPUSD higher into August, but of course Brexit had other plans, but you can see both markets are pretty buoyant after Brexit. We’re not seeing sell-offs like in 2009, which was honestly what I had expected. But I guess the 2 years period to sort things out actually cushioned doom sentiments in the GBP. But make no mistake, GBP and EUR are in for difficult times ahead.

We also had a bonus seasonal trade highlighted on the EURAUD. If you had caught it, and were patient enough, The reward from close to close was well over 700 pips. Let’s watch for it again next year 😉

USDCAD weekly

Here I highlighted a USDCAD trade, which honestly isn’t panning out as nicely as I thought it would by the time oil found $40. I expected USDCAD to be much higher by now. But at least we have that breakout above the consolidation highs and the strongest weekly close in a long long time. Oil might be stuck here for a while or begin making another leg up above $51 to test $56. So I’m cautious of my expectations for any long USDCAD ideas while oil is doing what it’s doing.

 

Gold

Gold

Here’s another market to take note of, the gold! You gold bugs must be extremely happy. Gold has been moving recently and it certainly looks like there’s quite a lot more movement to come.

With global uncertainty reaching new highs, it’s likely that gold will keep raising new prices as well.

The steep drop because of NFP brought this market to my attention once again.

 

Hope these highlights will benefit your trading folks.
Doesn’t matter if you’re trading against these highlights or with them, as long as you make money doing it!


Good trading folks!

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