The Systematic Trader | Trading Courses https://www.collinseow.com Learn a proven back-tested trading strategy and make money full or part-time Fri, 03 Apr 2020 10:08:53 +0000 en-US hourly 1 25400563 Board SIA Before The Plane Takes Off https://www.collinseow.com/board-sia-before-it-takes-off/ https://www.collinseow.com/board-sia-before-it-takes-off/#respond Fri, 03 Apr 2020 10:04:33 +0000 https://www.collinseow.com/?p=12965 You’re in for a special treat today, we have a guest post from an experienced analyst. And it’s about a stock which I’m sure you’ll recognize, the Singapore darling, Singapore Airlines! This stock is at levels not seen since 1998, here’s a quick peek at the weekly chart.   Singapore Airlines Ltd, the SQ brand […]

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You’re in for a special treat today, we have a guest post from an experienced analyst.

And it’s about a stock which I’m sure you’ll recognize, the Singapore darling, Singapore Airlines!

This stock is at levels not seen since 1998, here’s a quick peek at the weekly chart.

Singapore Airlines

 

Singapore Airlines Ltd, the SQ brand synonymous with The Best Airline, The Best Crew, The Best in whatever-you-can-think-of-in-the-air, is facing unprecedented headwinds in almost 5 decades of existence. All the awards amounted to nothing when borders are closed, and people just cannot travel.

If this situation continues, shareholders of SIA are expected to lose $1.3bn every quarter, equivalent to $430 million every month. Here’s the mathematics just by back-of-the-hand calculation using April – June 2019 results as a reference. SIA’s financial year ends in March. Hence, the April to June period corresponds to the first quarter of its financial year.

 

For shareholders, SIA wipes off $1.1 per share every quarter. Before the CoVid19 became a pandemic that jolts the global economy, we took the share price of SIA on Dec 31, 2019. It was trading at $9.04. As of writing on Apr 1, 2020, the stock changed hands at $5.54. Covid19 has shaven $3.5 off SIA.

On the book as of Dec 31, 2019, SIA had $12,150mn, or about $10.10 per share. Prior to the crisis, SIA was already trading below its book value at 0.9x P/B. Assuming this discount widens to 0.8x P/B (on the back of equity dilution in the rights issue), the current market price equates to $6.9 of book value. The difference between $10.10 and $6.9 is what Robinson Street (instead of Wall Street) thinks SIA would lose to CoVid19. By calculation, it takes 9 months of 96%-capacity-cut to justify the price weakness, assuming every 3 months erased $1.1/share of the equity value.

We have cleared one month in March. “Robinson Street” expects SIA to resume normal operations by December 2020. Key markets in Europe, US, China and the Australia-New Zealand need to open.

While Europe and the US are mired deep in the pandemic, it is evident from the news reports in China (up to you to believe or not) that the coronavirus can be overcome. Social distancing is the last defence against the virus when no vaccine is yet available. The political and economic costs of not opening the border may knock sense in key decision-makers that the lockdown cannot persist. The quarantines and social distancing is to “flatten the curve.” I’m optimistic this curve can be flattened. There are many countries with successful experience for others to model.

In time to come, SIA would soar the sky again. Whether they will be profitable or not is not a key driver of the share price now. Sentiments have overridden fundamentals for now. The recapitalised balance sheet of SIA is sufficient, in my opinion, to weather the viral storm. Commitment from the government, one of the wealthiest in the world, to protect the national pride means that SIA is highly unlikely to go belly up.

 

Think about what jokes others would make on Singapore when we could afford the world’s most advanced fighter jets (recent purchase $3.7bn in January 2020), but can’t keep the nation’s commercial airline in service. No, the joke is not going around anytime soon. Temasek gave the in-principle approval for the rights issue and bond issuance, raising some $15bn capital last week.

SIA looks decent for a sentiment-driven rebound. The price discount it suffered does not seem to justify the support it has from the government. So, jump on board SIA now before it takes off again. For all you know, SQ Business Class ticket is right here for your taking.

If you’d like to learn more about a system you can use to time your entry on SIA, click the banner below.

 

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Slack and Dominos in focus, Covid-19 beneficiaries? https://www.collinseow.com/slack-and-dominos-in-focus-covid-19-beneficiaries/ https://www.collinseow.com/slack-and-dominos-in-focus-covid-19-beneficiaries/#respond Fri, 27 Mar 2020 14:18:59 +0000 https://www.collinseow.com/?p=12954 The markets have dropped massively in a short amount of time. This leads many investors to expect the recovery to be as aggressive. These few days have seen a little bit of a bounce. Is this a chance to continue shorting or is this the start of the quick recovery that investors are expecting? To […]

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The markets have dropped massively in a short amount of time.
This leads many investors to expect the recovery to be as aggressive.
These few days have seen a little bit of a bounce.
Is this a chance to continue shorting or is this the start of the quick recovery that investors are expecting?

To give you some scope of the drop so far, some mature companies have even reached price levels not seen since their IPOs.
For example, this is the Hyatt weekly chart.

Hyatt

This stock IPO’ed at $25 back in 2009 and you can see price got there last week.
(Just a side note, it seems price could have a quick reaction from about $64.50 and about $70 areas, probably good for some very short term opportunistic trades.)

Anyway, after a huge drop like this, some people are still inclined to buy the stock market, I’m not surprised.
This time around, we’re not seeing the “blood on the streets” like we did back in 2008.
It appears to me that this time around, the general investor population is more well informed than before.
Personally, because of this phenomenon, I think there would be another leg down just to try and scare the little investors out, let’s see. 😉
But for an investment portfolio with a long 3-5 year horizon, we still shouldn’t pass up a good bargain.

So I’d just like to run through a few of the scan results, on the long side.
Instantly I see some popular names that I can identify, Slack and Dominos pizza.

Slack

Slack

First off we have Slack, this is an instant messaging platform, geared towards workplace needs.
With the Covid19 crisis hanging overhead, there’s no doubt more users going for such apps to aid working remotely from home.
The chart itself is very interesting!
We actually see it plunge 50% off its highs on 5th March, and now on 26th March, we see price nearly back at the highs again.
That’s down 50% and up 50% again in a period of approximately 3 weeks.
That’s pretty crazy.
Nevertheless, the candles have again turned blue, an arrow has popped up, but there is no TIF.
So this is not a signal to trigger YET.
I’ll be keeping an eye on this for a valid signal.

Domino’s pizza

Dominos

 

This is another company I’m sure you recognize as well, Domino’s Pizza.
It would seem their pizzas are getting better, although it’s been a while since I had the craving for domino’s pizza, they are huge in the US.
Looking at their charts, you can see a very stable up trend through the years.

Dominos

 

The recent crash only covered a gap, down into a strong level that was previously resistance.
Now it’s tested as support and it seems price is holding.
A nice set up to me.
Again we have blue candles and the green arrow appearing, but no TIF once again.
So not a valid signal this time.
I’ll keep an eye on this stock as well for a valid signal.
Take note that this counter is a bit on the expensive side at over $300 a share, so size your position well if you intend to play this stock.

Summary:
Both shares look interesting, but they also both share the same downside.
Which is the day to day stock movements aren’t very flowing, they appear to be rather choppy.
However, Dominos pizza overall has better context.
Breaking out from a long term consolidation, and retest of the area after breakout seems to be holding.
So Dominos has my preference.

 

If you’d like to find out more about how to take advantage of the TradersGPS system, click the banner below.

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23rd Mar Weekly Webinar Sneak Peak: Position trade (Old Long Signals): REGN, ZM & Weekly Swing trade: ERIE (Short) https://www.collinseow.com/23rd-mar-weekly-webinar-sneak-peak-position-trade-old-long-signals-regn-zm-weekly-swing-trade-erie-short/ https://www.collinseow.com/23rd-mar-weekly-webinar-sneak-peak-position-trade-old-long-signals-regn-zm-weekly-swing-trade-erie-short/#respond Tue, 24 Mar 2020 09:18:59 +0000 https://www.collinseow.com/?p=12950 Hello everyone! This week Collin shares about the weekly picture about Position trade (Old Long Signals): REGN, ZM & Weekly Swing trade: ERIE (Short) Also, waiting for opportunities ahead! Click the picture below to watch the video and find out more. Enjoy the video! If you’d like to find out more about the system I’m […]

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Hello everyone!

This week Collin shares about the weekly picture about Position trade (Old Long Signals): REGN, ZM & Weekly Swing trade: ERIE (Short)

Also, waiting for opportunities ahead!

Click the picture below to watch the video and find out more.

Enjoy the video!

If you’d like to find out more about the system I’m using, just click the banner below.

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ESG Investing Case-Study: Microsoft https://www.collinseow.com/esg-investing-case-study-microsoft/ https://www.collinseow.com/esg-investing-case-study-microsoft/#respond Tue, 17 Mar 2020 10:32:00 +0000 https://www.collinseow.com/?p=12927   ESG Investing, have you heard of this emerging investment trend? Now before I can talk about Microsoft, let’s make sure you understand what ESG investing entails. It’s a very positive approach for using our money to do good for our generation, and future generations of people on this planet, as a whole. This is […]

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ESG Investing, have you heard of this emerging investment trend?

Now before I can talk about Microsoft, let’s make sure you understand what ESG investing entails.

It’s a very positive approach for using our money to do good for our generation, and future generations of people on this planet, as a whole.

This is certainly something you can implement into your own investment approaches as well.

So let me give you the low-down on ESG investment.

ESG is a responsible investment process which incorporates 3 areas of factors into any investment approach.

This approach is designed to address global megatrends which have a growing influence over the investment landscape.

These megatrends consist of issues such as increasing regulation, growing need for risk mitigation and a heightened social conscience.

All this while keeping in mind, that the ultimate objective of ESG integration maintains to be financial performance.

 

The ESG factors are Environment, Social and Governance.

This translates to screening criteria for investments which:

1) Actively and successfully carry out business in a way which takes care or avoids harm to the natural environment.

2) Positively engage their employees, customers and communities to create a fair environment.

3) Are governed in a responsible and ethical way.

 

One of the main challenges that delayed a widespread adoption of ESG by the investment community, is that the factors are very difficult to quantify.

That and traditional investing believed their sole responsibility was only toward profit generation.

Because of the rise of big data and better tools to make sense of such data, corporations are becoming more transparent.

Investors are now more aware that corporations, which avoid controversial labour or environmental practices, tend to have fewer legal entanglements that affect their financials.

Good corporate governance often translates to good financial outcomes.

Estimates which indicate that ESG investment approaches represent more than 20 Trillion in AUM and still growing.

 

Are you all caught up on ESG investing now?

Great! Let’s take a quick look at Microsoft.

This is a great stock to own based on ESG investing.

As a case study example, Microsoft ranks very high on the ESG rating, based on MSCI.

You can dig more about how MSCI’s ESG ratings at this website.

So, looking at Microsoft’s price chart below, price has fallen almost 30% since the high formed just over a month ago.

How can you know where to buy this stock? (Just as a case study, not a stock recommendation)

For me it’s simple, I would use the TradersGPS to guide me.

So once the candles turn blue and those green arrows start appearing, I’ll be ready with my finger on the trigger.

This is the year of massive opportunities, are you ready for it?

 

If you would like to find out more about this simple, yet amazingly powerful system, click the banner below.

 

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Market Crisis Themes: Let’s Zoom In On COVID-19 https://www.collinseow.com/market-crisis-themes-lets-zoom-in-on-covid-19/ https://www.collinseow.com/market-crisis-themes-lets-zoom-in-on-covid-19/#respond Tue, 10 Mar 2020 09:37:36 +0000 https://www.collinseow.com/?p=12909 Well, now that’s a stock market move we haven’t seen in a few years. The last time the S&P500 and DJ managed to hit the circuit breaker was back in 2016, if I recall, where I managed to do a sweet little lag trade on the Russell2000 futures. But that’s a story for another time. […]

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Well, now that’s a stock market move we haven’t seen in a few years.

The last time the S&P500 and DJ managed to hit the circuit breaker was back in 2016, if I recall, where I managed to do a sweet little lag trade on the Russell2000 futures.

But that’s a story for another time.

 

Right now what I’m interested in, is where we can put our money to take advantage of the current market.

I love volatile drops like this, they pave the way for great trading and investment opportunities.

We don’t have to act immediately by the way, that would be just trying to catch a falling knife with your bare hands!

Let me show you a simple method which I’m using to time my participation in this awesome market condition, watch out for it below.

Time to get excited folks. 😉

 

First let’s just take a look at the overall situation right now.

We know there’s the COVID-19 virus on the cards.

Then we have the crude oil price war.

And of course, the overall concern that price has gone up for so many years without a proper breather because the CBs(Central Banks. Hello, what were you thinking?) kept printing money.

 

So tying in with the first of the macro factor which we identified above, there is one stock which caught our eye back in February, Zoom.

If you’re in our SMT community, you would know that this is also the software we use for our online webinars =)

It’s a pretty good platform isn’t it?

For those of you who don’t know about Zoom, it’s actually a video conferencing platform.

 

So with COVID-19 virus going around, avoiding human interaction is the best solution for containment.

At this moment, we don’t know if COVID-19 is a temporary situation or how far it will affect us.

But right now, at least it forces businesses to explore remote working arrangements in closer detail.

A huge proportion of the work force can actually get their work done without being physically at the office.

Over the past few years, numerous articles have highlighted that staff significantly improved their productivity when allowed to work from home.

 

So as things stand, the platforms which facilitate employees remote working arrangement are critical.

And who knows, some might actually stick to this practice and make it the norm beyond this crisis period.

As a business, you reduce costs because you need a smaller physical office and productivity increases.

So why not right?

 

This is where Zoom comes in as a major player in the video conferencing arena.

I’m not going to advertise their range of services, but I do want to highlight that they are a very powerful tool which gained a lot of traction last year at their IPO.

In the new world of remote working arrangements, I believe them to be a key player.

We use Zoom for our own video conferencing needs as well.

 

Here’s a quick look at the chart, it’s a short history since Zoom only IPO’ed in mid April 2019.

Zoom price chart

Pretty amazing that price is still holding near the highs even after the US Indices dropped so much yesterday.

 

Now let us zoom in on Zoom’s recent trend to see the signals generated.

Zoom price TGPS signals

 

Which brings me back to what I promised earlier, to show you how I intend to time my market participation.

The TradersGPS triggered 3 valid since Collin first highlighted this stock in February.

So I wouldn’t want to chase the subsequent signals right now.

 

I’m waiting for Zoom price to consolidate or take a break.

Perhaps let the candles turn red first, then turn back blue again before I take long signals.

If this is a genuine recession type of move, then the market could take some time to find a bottom.

Therefore, I’m in no rush to jump into the market.

Most markets drops will find their bottoms within a year.

However, back in 2008, the market took 1.5 years to find a bottom.

I’m not expecting a recession of that magnitude here, but it does indicate that we have time to pick our spots.

 

If you’d like to find out more about the system I’m using, just click the banner below.

 

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9th Mar Weekly Webinar Sneak Peak: Position trade (Past Long Signals): REGN, BMRN, ZM, DOCU & Weekly Swing trade: PCTY, AMAT (New Long) & HZNP, CG, FISV (Old Long) https://www.collinseow.com/9th-mar-weekly-webinar-sneak-peak-position-trade-past-long-signals-regn-bmrn-zm-docu-weekly-swing-trade-pcty-amat-new-long-hznp-cg-fisv-old-long/ https://www.collinseow.com/9th-mar-weekly-webinar-sneak-peak-position-trade-past-long-signals-regn-bmrn-zm-docu-weekly-swing-trade-pcty-amat-new-long-hznp-cg-fisv-old-long/#respond Mon, 09 Mar 2020 07:11:51 +0000 https://www.collinseow.com/?p=12903 Hello everyone! This week Collin shares about the weekly picture about Position trade (Past Long Signals): REGN, BMRN, ZM, DOCU & Weekly Swing trade: PCTY, AMAT (New Long) & HZNP, CG, FISV (Old Long) Also, waiting for opportunities ahead! Click the picture below to watch the video and find out more. Enjoy the video!

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Hello everyone!

This week Collin shares about the weekly picture about Position trade (Past Long Signals): REGN, BMRN, ZM, DOCU & Weekly Swing trade: PCTY, AMAT (New Long) & HZNP, CG, FISV (Old Long)

Also, waiting for opportunities ahead!

Click the picture below to watch the video and find out more.

Enjoy the video!

The post 9th Mar Weekly Webinar Sneak Peak: Position trade (Past Long Signals): REGN, BMRN, ZM, DOCU & Weekly Swing trade: PCTY, AMAT (New Long) & HZNP, CG, FISV (Old Long) appeared first on The Systematic Trader | Trading Courses.

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24th Feb Weekly Webinar Sneak Peak: Position trade (long): BMRN, ZM, DOCU, ALNY, CHTR, LBRDK & Swing trade: HZNP, BRKR, CME, CG, FISV https://www.collinseow.com/24th-feb-weekly-webinar-sneak-peak-position-trade-long-bmrn-zm-docu-alny-chtr-lbrdk-swing-trade-hznp-brkr-cme-cg-fisv/ https://www.collinseow.com/24th-feb-weekly-webinar-sneak-peak-position-trade-long-bmrn-zm-docu-alny-chtr-lbrdk-swing-trade-hznp-brkr-cme-cg-fisv/#respond Mon, 24 Feb 2020 04:18:49 +0000 https://www.collinseow.com/?p=12882 Hello everyone! This week Collin shares about the weekly picture about Position trade (long): BMRN, ZM, DOCU, ALNY, CHTR, LBRDK & Swing trade: HZNP, BRKR, CME, CG, FISV Also, waiting for opportunities ahead to have a swing trade, looking for a pullback! Click the picture below to watch the video and find out more. If […]

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Hello everyone!

This week Collin shares about the weekly picture about Position trade (long): BMRN, ZM, DOCU, ALNY, CHTR, LBRDK & Swing trade: HZNP, BRKR, CME, CG, FISV

Also, waiting for opportunities ahead to have a swing trade, looking for a pullback!

Click the picture below to watch the video and find out more.

If you want to take your trading to the next level with me, click the image below!

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SMT TV Episode 65 – High probability chart pattern and how to trade it (Part 2) https://www.collinseow.com/smt-tv-episode-65-high-probability-chart-pattern-and-how-to-trade-it-part-2/ https://www.collinseow.com/smt-tv-episode-65-high-probability-chart-pattern-and-how-to-trade-it-part-2/#respond Thu, 20 Feb 2020 04:24:47 +0000 https://www.collinseow.com/?p=12872 High probability chart pattern and how to trade it (Part 2) Let me share with you my take on it. Just Click on the image below to watch the video and remember to like and subscribe to my Channel                     If you want to take your […]

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High probability chart pattern and how to trade it (Part 2)

Let me share with you my take on it.

Just Click on the image below to watch the video and remember to like and subscribe to my Channel

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you want to take your trading to the next level with me, click the image below!

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SMT TV Episode 64 – High probability chart pattern and how to trade it https://www.collinseow.com/smt-tv-episode-64-high-probability-chart-pattern-and-how-to-trade-it/ https://www.collinseow.com/smt-tv-episode-64-high-probability-chart-pattern-and-how-to-trade-it/#respond Thu, 13 Feb 2020 07:00:04 +0000 https://www.collinseow.com/?p=12811 High probability chart pattern and how to trade it Let me share with you my take on it. Just Click on the image below to watch the video and remember to like and subscribe to my Channel!   If you want to take your trading to the next level with me, click the image below!

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High probability chart pattern and how to trade it

Let me share with you my take on it.

Just Click on the image below to watch the video and remember to like and subscribe to my Channel!

 

If you want to take your trading to the next level with me, click the image below!

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Coronavirus Wuhan : What stocks should we be buying and selling? https://www.collinseow.com/coronavirus-wuhan https://www.collinseow.com/coronavirus-wuhan#respond Thu, 13 Feb 2020 00:58:02 +0000 https://www.collinseow.com/?p=12836 *updated post on 4th March 2020* Coronavirus Wuhan or COVID-19  is on top of everyone’s minds right now. Instead of pretending to an economist, I will give a technical view of the stock market since the Virus and what are the possible sectors and stocks you should be looking at. First, let’s talk about the […]

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*updated post on 4th March 2020*

Coronavirus Wuhan or COVID-19  is on top of everyone’s minds right now. Instead of pretending to an economist, I will give a technical view of the stock market since the Virus and what are the possible sectors and stocks you should be looking at.

First, let’s talk about the biggest market in the world: the US stock market.

Below is the SP 500 chart:

SPX since the coronavirus wuhan

*S&P500 since the COVID-19 Virus*

The earliest reported symptoms occurred on 1st December 2019, S&P500 has actually risen since the virus. From this, we can see the market rather resilient to this. But how about the Chinese market?

China A50 since the Wuhan virus
*China A50 since the COVID-19 Virus*

The China A50 has dropped since the high of 14th Jan 2020, but has since rallied about 50% which is a Fibonacci retracement level.

I think it is possible for the short-term, that we have another leg down to test the low in February.

However, I don’t think it would break the lows unless the situation worsens from here.

Next, what are the US sectors you should consider for trading?

Sectors to consider in the Conrona Virus

Over here, I am not going to give the usual, buy healthcare, pharmaceutical and sell retail and services kind of advice. Though it sounds logical somewhat. Let’s take a look at what is actually happening 1 week or 1 month ago vs the price now.

The strong sector from the last 1 month is still the technology sector.

However, for the energy sector, it has dropped significantly. As the saying goes, the trend is your friend, I think going forward, this trend will still remain. Energy may continue to remain weak vs the other sectors.

For the global sector, it is just a slight difference, utilities sector is the strongest sector, fund managers are more defensive now and preparing for the worst.

Global Sector

Lastly, what are the stocks we should look at to buy or sell? Below are the list of stocks. These stocks are ranked according to their strength vs the index in the last 1 month. One thing you have to note is that you still need to have some selection process to choose which stocks to buy or short.

As you can see on the right side of the chart it shows the number of arrows. Those that already have a good number of arrows are probably a little too late in the trend. Eg: Tesla ( 17 arrows).

Strong stocks 13 Feb 2020 Weak Stocks 13 feb 2020

Tesla Chart with 17 arrows.

So in conclusion, looking at the market now. This COVID-19 virus does not look like it’s affecting the market much as of yet. If the situation does worsen, the market may still continue to rally ahead. This is the view as of 13th Feb.

Sector-wise buy tech or utilities, sell oil.

*Latest Update 4 March*

 

SP500 corrected and right now the long term the price is below the long term(red) GMMA lines. Both the short term and long term GMMA lines are slopping down which means that short term next 1-2 months we may test the low in late Feb. Support is around 2950. If the support breaks then the next level to look at is 2800.

Now lets take a look at the weekly chart.

SP500 weekly chart 4 March 2020

From the weekly chart, we can see that the uptrend line is still intact. So as of right now, it is still considered a correction.

Next question, what should we do now? Buy, sell or hold?

I will say wait and see, for short term (1 week) we could do shorts on the rally. For the long term, 1-3 months time-frame; it’s still buy on the dips.

It is low probability to have a bear market. Price has to break below the 200 week moving average and the long-term uptrend line will have been broken.

The 2 times when this actually happened was when the SP500 dropped 35% in 2002, and 47% in 2009 accordingly.

In terms of sectors, technology and utilities are still the strongest and the weakest is still energy.

So in conclusion, the current trend is the correct trend. For short term, the current trend is down, but for the long term, it is definitely still up.

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So back to the Tesla share price, hold on to Tesla if you already bought and wait for a dip around $540 to get in you have not bought any.

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